Predicting
or even commenting on sales trends is a rocky road that we usually avoid at
Victraders but this week is different.
Over
the past week a couple of our "more considered" traders have been
ready to call a significant economic downturn. Traders often feel they are a
litmus test for consumer buying - we know about consumer sentiment at least a
couple of weeks before the news hits the press.
So
what is the evidence? February and March sales seem to be at historic lows.
Sunday sales in particular have crashed. There is plenty of bad news out there
about house prices, mortgages, and interest rates. Normal "saviours"
in the form of city wide events, or celebrity concerts don't seem to have
worked this time around. Bruce Springsteen's recent sold out Melbourne concerts hardly
seemed to raise a ripple and Guns'n'Roses filled the MCG but hardly created
paradise city.
This
weekend Adele is filling Etihad Stadium with two concerts and her fans are
certainly evident in the market. This story is being written early Sunday
morning and for most traders, after two dismal weekends of trading, Saturday's
sales showed a return to form. Will that continue and will Adele's fans make
recent sales performance seem just like water under the bridge? Let's hope so.